After losing in seven games in last year’s Eastern Conference Finals to the Miami Heat, the top-seeded Boston Celtics will get their chance at revenge when they face Miami in the first round of the 2024 NBA playoffs. Game 1 is set for Sunday at Boston’s TD Garden. The Heat (46-36), who defeated Chicago 112-91 in Friday’s play-in matchup, will look to match last year’s success, which saw them take down top-seeded Milwaukee, fifth-seeded New York and second-seeded Boston to reach the NBA Finals, where they lost to the Denver Nuggets in five games. Miami will have to do so without small forward Jimmy Butler, who has a sprained MCL and will miss several weeks.
Tipoff is set for 1 p.m. ET. Boston leads the all-time series 100-73, but Miami holds a 20-17 series edge in the postseason. The Celtics are 14-point favorites in the latest Heat vs. Celtics odds from SportsLine consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 209.5. Before making any Celtics vs. Heat picks, you’ll want to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past five-plus seasons. The model enters the 2024 NBA playoffs on a sizzling 88-58 roll on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning more than $2,600. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Celtics vs. Heat and just locked in its picks and NBA playoff predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Heat vs. Celtics:
Heat vs. Celtics spread: Boston -14 Heat vs. Celtics over/under: 209.5 points Heat vs. Celtics money line: Miami +696, Boston -1111 MIA: The Heat have won 28 of their last 49 away games (+21.15 units on the ML) BOS: The Celtics have covered the first half spread in 58 of their last 85 games (+27.35 units) Heat vs. Celtics picks: See picks at SportsLine Why the Celtics can cover Kristaps Porzingis has had a lot of success against the Heat this season. In three games, he is averaging 20.3 points, 7.3 rebounds, 1.7 assists, one block and one steal. For the season, he is averaging 20.1 points, 7.2 rebounds, two assists and 1.9 blocks in 29.6 minutes. He enters the postseason having posted three double-doubles over his final four games of the regular season.
Also helping power the Celtics is point guard Derrick White. In 73 games, all starts, he is averaging 15.2 points, 5.2 assists, 4.2 rebounds, 1.2 blocks and one steal in 32.6 minutes of action. In three games against the Heat this season, he is averaging 16.3 points, 4.7 rebounds, 4.3 assists and two blocks. He was the first player in NBA history to record at least 200 assists, 120 3-pointers, 50 blocks and 40 steals in the first 46 games to start a season. See which team to pick here.
Why the Heat can cover Point guard Tyler Herro narrowly missed a triple-double in Friday’s play-in win over the Bulls. In 33 minutes of action, Herro poured in 24 points, while adding 10 rebounds and nine assists. In three regular-season games against Boston in 2023-2024, Herro averaged 23.7 points, 4.7 rebounds and 5.3 assists. He and Butler were the leading scorers on the team, both averaging 20.8 points. Herro also averaged 5.3 rebounds and 4.5 assists in 33.5 minutes.
Center Bam Adebayo also made his presence felt on Friday, scoring 13 points, while adding four rebounds, four assists and two blocks in the win over the Bulls. He recorded a double-double in Wednesday’s 105-104 play-in loss to Philadelphia, scoring 10 points, while grabbing 12 rebounds. In 71 games, all starts, he averaged 19.3 points, 10.4 rebounds, 3.9 assists and 1.1 steals in 34 minutes. He has had good success against Boston throughout his career. In 22 games, he is averaging 17.1 points, 8.3 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 1.3 steals and one block in 32 minutes. See which team to pick here.
How to make Heat vs. Celtics picks SportsLine’s model is leaning Under on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 208 points. The model also says one side hits in over 50% of simulations. You can only get the model’s pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Celtics vs. Heat, and which side hits in over 50% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Celtics vs. Heat spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that has returned more than $2,600 on its NBA picks this season, and find out.
The field for the 2024 NBA playoffs is set after the Pelicans and Heat sealed the two final spots on Friday. Four first-round series got underway on Saturday, and the other four tip off on Sunday. You can view the full first-round schedule for all series here.
This has the makings to be a wild postseason ride with basically every series feeling like it could go either way. That said, I’m personally going all chalk in the first round except for one series: I think the No. 5 Mavericks take out the No. 4 Clippers (who are once again playing the annual “will he or won’t he play” game with Kawhi Leonard). This isn’t really an upset as the sportsbooks are favoring the Mavs to win the series.
I also wouldn’t be surprised in the slightest if the Suns beat the Wolves, or if the Sixers got past the Knicks, or if the Pacers took out the Bucks, who are going to be without Giannis Antetokounmpo in Game 1 and potentially longer than that. But I’m not picking that way.
Do my CBS colleagues agree with me, or do they see a few more upsets on the board? Check it out, as our first-round picks are below.
Celtics vs. Heat
player headshot Brad Botkin player headshot James Herbert player headshot Jack Maloney player headshot Sam Quinn player headshot Colin Ward-Henninger player headshot Jasmyn Wimbish CELTICS VS. HEAT team logo Celtics team logo Celtics team logo Celtics team logo Celtics team logo Celtics team logo Celtics Botkin: Celtics in 5. There is no logical part of my brain that can make any case for the Heat winning this series, and yet I fully expect them to pull off some kind of magic act and take this thing to six or seven when Jimmy Butler can possibly return with enough pressure on Boston’s shoulders to bring down a skyscraper. Whatever. I’ll never learn my lesson. The Heat just don’t have enough firepower. Boston wins in five.
Herbert: Celtics in 5. Boston’s the (way) better team, Jimmy Butler has a sprained MCL and I’d be shocked if Miami manages to put everything together the way it did last season. I can envision the Celtics dropping a game, I guess, but, after playing with their food in the first round in 2023, I feel like they’ve learned their lesson.
Maloney: Celtics in 5. We all know what happened last year, but this Celtics team is much better and the Heat aren’t going to have Jimmy Butler for at least part of this series.
Quinn: Celtics in 4. Well, the Celtics went 64-18, and the Heat won’t have their best player. I think that’s reason enough to call for a sweep.
Ward-Henninger: Celtics in 6. On paper this may look like a sweep, especially with Jimmy Butler potentially out for the whole series, but if you think being undermanned is going to stop the Heat then you haven’t been watching them over the past several years. The Celtics have been on cruise control for a while, so it wouldn’t surprise me to see Miami steal one in Boston. Ultimately, though, the Celtics are just too good to lose this series.
Wimbish: Celtics in 5. Sure the Heat pummeled the Bulls without Jimmy Butler, but Boston is a different beast. Even if Butler managed to play through the MCL sprain, he wouldn’t be at 100% and I don’t think the Heat have enough to contend with Boston.
Knicks vs. 76ers
player headshot Brad Botkin player headshot James Herbert player headshot Jack Maloney player headshot Sam Quinn player headshot Colin Ward-Henninger player headshot Jasmyn Wimbish KNICKS VS. 76ERS team logo Knicks team logo Knicks team logo Knicks team logo Knicks team logo Knicks team logo 76ers Botkin: Knicks in 7. New York wins a tough series on the strength of Jalen Brunson’s consistent shot creation and a major offensive rebounding edge that gives the Knicks too many extra possessions over the course of a series.
Herbert: Knicks in 7. Had I made this pick before the play-in, it would’ve been Philadelphia. I was spooked by the way Joel Embiid was moving against the Heat, so here we are.
Maloney: Knicks in 6. The Knicks are rolling and Joel Embiid did not look great in the Play-In game vs. the Heat. If Embiid cannot be his usual self and dominate inside, I don’t think the Sixers will have enough against a super-confident Knicks team with perhaps the best home-court advantage in the league.
Quinn: Knicks in 7. If Joel Embiid was 100%, I might reconsider. He clearly isn’t. The Knicks have two qualified centers to defend him in Isaiah Hartenstein and Mitchell Robinson. We’ll likely see OG Anunoby front him a fair bit as well. Philadelphia has only two reliable sources of offense in Embiid and Tyrese Maxey. The Knicks, even without Julius Randle, are just the far deeper team right now.
Ward-Henninger: Knicks in 7. his is a pretty even series in my opinion, so I’ll lean on the Knicks’ home-court advantage. Joel Embiid will have a couple of unstoppable games, but the Knicks’ offensive rebounding could be the difference in a tight matchup.
Wimbish: 76ers in 6. The Sixers barely escaped the Heat, but I’m betting on them to put forth a much better showing against the Knicks. I don’t think New York will be able to contain Joel Embiid, and if the Sixers really wanted to play the Knicks like Paul Reed said earlier this week, then they should show exactly why they preferred this matchup.
Bucks vs. Pacers
player headshot Brad Botkin player headshot James Herbert player headshot Jack Maloney player headshot Sam Quinn player headshot Colin Ward-Henninger player headshot Jasmyn Wimbish BUCKS VS. PACERS team logo Bucks team logo Pacers team logo Pacers team logo Pacers team logo Pacers team logo Pacers Botkin: Bucks in 7. Indiana is the popular upset pick but I think Milwaukee has enough to get through this one. I expect Damian Lillard to go big with a fresh start on what has been a tough season.
Herbert: Pacers in 6. This is a weird one because Giannis Antetokounmpo’s status is unclear and all their regular-season matchups took place before Milwaukee changed coaches and Indiana made a huge trade. The Pacers aren’t a disaster on defense anymore, and I’m not sure the Bucks can keep up with them on offense right now.
Maloney: Pacers in 6. The only time the Bucks won in five regular-season meetings against the Pacers is when Giannis Antetokounmpo had a career (and franchise) record 64 points. A lot has changed since those games for both teams, but the Pacers remain a bad matchup for the Bucks. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Bucks end up winning, but I can’t pick them with Antetokounmpo’s status unclear.
Quinn: Pacers in 6. Indiana’s whole defense is designed to give up layups to prevent 3s. Giannis Antetokounmpo can take advantage of that. The rest of the Bucks? Not so much. Antetokounmpo has been ruled out for Game 1. Calf injuries are tricky, and if the Pacers take a big enough lead in the series, it might not even be worthwhile for Milwaukee to bring Antetokounmpo back at all.
Ward-Henninger: Pacers in 6. The Bucks have looked lost all season, and now they may not have Giannis Antetokounmpo for the entire series. Both teams got better defensively over the second half, but I trust the Pacers’ offensive machine to wear down Milwaukee over the course of the series.
Wimbish: Pacers in 6. The Pacers are lethal when they’re cooking on offense. Their defense is abysmal, but I don’t think Milwaukee has enough firepower on offense to keep up. Giannis being hobbled also makes me nervous for the Bucks.
Cavaliers vs. Magic
player headshot Brad Botkin player headshot James Herbert player headshot Jack Maloney player headshot Sam Quinn player headshot Colin Ward-Henninger player headshot Jasmyn Wimbish CAVALIERS VS. MAGIC team logo Cavaliers team logo Cavaliers team logo Cavaliers team logo Magic team logo Cavaliers team logo Cavaliers Botkin: Cavaliers in 6. Cleveland needs to win this series from beyond the arc and I believe the Cavs will. With Donovan Mitchell back and Sam Merrill, Georges Niang and Max Strus spacing around him and Darius Garland, Cleveland will get up enough 3s to win on math.
Herbert: Cavaliers in 6. My confidence level isn’t high, based on how badly Cleveland disappointed in last year’s playoffs, but I’m optimistic that it will stagger its rotation in such a way that it can recapture some of the rhythm it had before the All-Star break. Also, as awesome as Orlando is defensively, I worry that the team just won’t be able to score enough.
Maloney: Cavaliers in 6. The Cavs’ recent form and their performance in the playoffs last season makes me wary, but they have the best players in the series in Donovan Mitchell and far more experience. More than anything, this is a pick against Orlando’s poor offense and youth.
Quinn: Magic in 6. Donovan Mitchell has played far below his standard since the All-Star break. Neither Darius Garland nor Evan Mobley have improved as Cleveland had expected. I just don’t see how they’re going to score much against an Orlando defense that ranked No. 3 in the regular season and is ready to unleash Jonathan Isaac, the best per-minute defender in the NBA, in a bigger role now that the playoffs have arrived.
Ward-Henninger: Cavaliers in 7. This shapes up to be an ugly, grind-it-out series, and ultimately I trust Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland to make plays down the stretch more than I trust Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner (at this stage in their careers). It should definitely be a close one, though.
Wimbish: Cavaliers in 7. I think this may be the most compelling series in the East out of the gate. It may not have the star power of other matchups, but Orlando has been a tough defensive team this season. I don’t think the Magic have enough consistent shooters to win this series but I do think this will be a drag out fight and it won’t be easy for Cleveland.
Thunder vs. Pelicans
player headshot Brad Botkin player headshot James Herbert player headshot Jack Maloney player headshot Sam Quinn player headshot Colin Ward-Henninger player headshot Jasmyn Wimbish THUNDER VS. PELICANS team logo Thunder team logo Thunder team logo Thunder team logo Thunder team logo Thunder team logo Thunder Botkin: Thunder in 5. Even if Zion were healthy the Thunder are just too good on both ends. Without Zion, forget about it.
Herbert: Thunder in 6. Two super fun, deep teams here. Since Zion Williamson will be sidelined for at least the beginning of the series, though, this is as generous as I can be to New Orleans. (I’m not going to concern-troll OKC about its lack of experience or whatever.)
Maloney: Thunder in 5. I would have picked the Thunder in this series no matter what, but the Pelicans don’t have a chance without Zion Williamson.
Quinn: Thunder in 5. Zion Williamson would have made this matchup interesting. His bulk would’ve caused problems for the relatively small Thunder. Without him? The talent disparity is just too great. The Thunder are the No. 1 seed for a reason.
Ward-Henninger: Thunder in 5. Those who may not know just how good the Thunder are will soon find out, and the Pelicans will be their first victim. Without Zion Williamson, New Orleans just doesn’t have enough punch to compete with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Co.
Wimbish: Thunder in 6. This becomes a completely different series if Zion Williamson somehow plays, but as it stands I’ll give New Orleans two games on the Thunder, but ultimately I think OKC’s depth wins out.
Nuggets vs. Lakers
player headshot Brad Botkin player headshot James Herbert player headshot Jack Maloney player headshot Sam Quinn player headshot Colin Ward-Henninger player headshot Jasmyn Wimbish NUGGETS VS. LAKERS team logo Nuggets team logo Nuggets team logo Nuggets team logo Nuggets team logo Nuggets team logo Nuggets Botkin: Nuggets in 5. Tough break for the Lakers, who I think are a conference finals team, drawing Denver in round one. The Nuggets are just too great, plain and simple.
Herbert: Nuggets in 5. I’ll give Los Angeles a game this time, but, short of one of Denver’s starters getting hurt, it’s hard to envision the Lakers’ path to victory here. Is D’Angelo Russell going to get played off the floor the way he did last season?
Maloney: Nuggets in 5. I know it happened last season when these two teams met in the Western Conference Finals, but I can’t pick a LeBron James-led team to get swept, so I’m giving the Lakers a game. That’s all I think they’ll get, though. The Nuggets are just too good.
Quinn: Nuggets in 5. The Nuggets have won eight in a row against the Lakers. These two teams have played 18 clutch minutes since the start of the 2023 Western Conference Finals and the Nuggets have won those minutes by 32 points. I’ll give LeBron James a game, but the Lakers have done nothing to prove they can match Denver’s late-game execution.
Ward-Henninger: Nuggets in 5. With most of the same pieces back again, I don’t see why this series will go any differently than last year’s Western Conference Finals. The games will be close, but Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets are just too perfect when it comes to clutch execution.
Wimbish: Nuggets in 6. I think L.A. is going to bring a lot of baggage to this series after how the Western Conference Finals ended a year ago, so they’ll make it interesting for awhile. It wouldn’t even surprise me if it was tied 2-2. But Denver is a tough draw over the course of a series and the Lakers lack of depth and shooting and rely too much on LeBron James and Anthony Davis.
Timberwolves vs. Suns
player headshot Brad Botkin player headshot James Herbert player headshot Jack Maloney player headshot Sam Quinn player headshot Colin Ward-Henninger player headshot Jasmyn Wimbish TIMBERWOLVES VS. SUNS team logo Timberwolves team logo Suns team logo Timberwolves team logo Timberwolves team logo Suns team logo Timberwolves Botkin: Timberwolves in 6. There’s a temptation to say the Wolves can’t score enough in this series, but they’re going to force the Suns into so many tough 2s that eventually the shots will stop going in at an efficient enough rate.
Herbert: Suns in 6. Minnesota is too good to dismiss and I am interested to see what Chris Finch has up his sleeve, but this has been a terrible matchup. Karl-Anthony Towns is going to be put in extremely uncomfortable situations defensively.
Maloney: Timberwolves in 7. I’ve gone back and forth on this series a few times. The Suns’ regular-season dominance in this matchup does feel meaningful, but I do not trust their defense or anyone on their bench, and it feels like they’ll have to be perfect on offense to win this series. They very well might be given their talent, but I’m going to play the percentages here and take the Wolves.
Quinn: Timberwolves in 7. This is by far the hardest series to pick. Phoenix is going to feast on Minnesota’s drop coverage. I have no idea how the Suns plan to defend Anthony Edwards. In the end, Minnesota’s depth and home-court advantage give it the slimmest of edges, but this one could go either way.
Ward-Henninger: Suns in 7. I’m probably falling into the same old trap when it comes to the Suns, but if any team is going to get past the league’s best defense, it’s one with two of the league’s best individual scorers. There’s also going to be a lot on Anthony Edwards’ shoulders, and Frank Vogel will design a defense to make other players beat them. I may regret it, but give me KD and Book.
Wimbish: Timberwolves in 7. I could honestly see the Suns winning this series, but I’m going to go with the team that has been more consistent this season. I’m picking this to go the distance because Phoenix lacks the depth, but the talent between Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal is just too much think they won’t go down without a fight.
Clippers vs. Mavericks
player headshot Brad Botkin player headshot James Herbert player headshot Jack Maloney player headshot Sam Quinn player headshot Colin Ward-Henninger player headshot Jasmyn Wimbish CLIPPERS VS. MAVERICKS team logo Mavericks team logo Mavericks team logo Mavericks team logo Mavericks team logo Clippers team logo Mavericks Botkin: Mavericks in 6. Even if Kawhi comes back you have to question if he can actually last a whole series. Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving are making sweet music and the Mavs are defending with 48 minutes of rim protection between Dereck Lively and Daniel Gafford.
Herbert: Mavericks in 7. I’d pick the Clippers if Kawhi Leonard were entering the series healthy, despite the fact that Dallas ended the season a zillion times stronger. Without being sure that Leonard will be available and at his best, though, I have to lean Mavericks.
Maloney: Mavericks in 6. The Mavericks have been one of the best teams in the league for a while now and Luka Doncic always rises to the occasion. I probably would have picked them no matter what, but I’m even more confident given Kawhi Leonard’s knee injury.
Quinn: Mavericks in 6. Kawhi Leonard’s health doesn’t help matters, but the truth is that the Mavericks have just been a far better team since the All-Star break. Their current starting lineup is 15-1. James Harden is going to get hunted into extinction by Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. I just can’t see the Clippers getting the stops they’ll need to win this series.
Ward-Henninger: Clippers in 7. This is obviously a bet that Kawhi Leonard will return somewhere close to 100% (if at all), and that the Clippers will get back to the team that was so dominant for a chunk of the season. Dallas has been as good as anyone in the league recently, but — as great as Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving are — the Mavs may still be one guy short against a full-strength Clippers squad.
Wimbish: Mavericks in 6. Kawhi not being fully healthy is a red flag. Couple that with the fact that the Mavericks are entering the playoffs as perhaps the hottest team in the league after finishing the season so strong and I’m going with Luka Doncic to finally overcome the Clippers.
There are several critical things that will hinge on the first-round playoff series that kicks off Sunday between the Dallas Mavericks and Los Angeles Clippers. For starters, there’s a clear path to the Western Conference Finals on a side of the bracket missing the Denver Nuggets. There’s a red-hot Mavs team trying to keep its stellar form alive now that we’ve arrived at playoff basketball. There’s what becomes of Paul George if the Clippers crash out in the first round, and what to make of the star-studded tandem in Dallas if it’s the Mavs who get eliminated early.
But atop the list of what could be at stake is a possibility sometimes whispered about in the NBA and, barring a change, creeping closer to reality: That Luka Doncic is actually James Harden 2.0. — a superb scorer whose game doesn’t easily translate to success in the playoffs.
Yes, at this moment in time, Doncic is one of the great basketball players on earth, and all the things that particular truth can foretell — championships, perhaps several, worthy accolades like MVPs, periods of domination, HOF speeches, and so on — can feel inevitable.
Doncic, after all, is so astoundingly great that Stan Van Gundy told the Dan Le Batard show last week Doncic is “the best offensive player now that I have ever seen.”
That’s high praise indeed, and well-earned, if a bit much. Doncic just had 33.9/9.2/9.8 season. He’s a human highlight reel whose virtuoso offensive performances are difficult to overstate. I just voted him at third on my official NBA MVP ballot, an excruciating decision given the seasons Nikola Jokic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander also have had.
And now, just in time for the playoffs, Doncic has a team that seems ready to rise to his level of expectations.
Since the All-Star Break, the Mavericks have the seventh-best offensive rating in the league. No surprise there — Doncic and Kyrie Irving are an outstanding offensive duo. But this next part is downright shocking: Since March 7, when Daniel Gafford, who was acquired at the trade deadline, was inserted into Dallas’ starting lineup, they have the No. 1 defense in the league.
A team that was awful defensively for much of the season – and that are still just 18th in defensive rating over the course of the entire season — have been the league’s best over the past 20 games. They also have the second-best record over that stretch, behind only the Boston Celtics.
But there is that worry, lurking, talked about in some NBA corners by Luka fans and Luka doubters, who have concerns.
Also worth noting: All-time greats who have been severely and savagely doubted have in the past flipped those narratives of doubt into reams of glowing press and starry-eyed believers. Think Steph Curry. Think, just a year ago, Nikola Jokic.
Yet Doncic’s greatness carries with it a distinct concern.
His ball-dominant approach, and the eye-popping regular-season results that can follow, have been seen before — sometimes with brutal postseason returns. The idea of an MVP-level player, playing historically excellent offensive basketball, for a team that on paper looks like a true contender, that suddenly gets exposed in the playoffs — well, there’s a precedent for that.
And his name is James Harden.
As in the guy who will just so happen to be a walking reminder throughout this Mavs-Clippers series of how fleeting greatness can be, and the windows it that can open and close as a result, in the NBA.
Harden, after all, has won an MVP and three scoring titles, and is a six-time All NBA First Team player. He, too, was once rightly regarded as one of the great basketball talents to grace any court at any time in history. Much of Harden’s time atop the NBA mountain came in Houston where, like Doncic so far in Dallas, The Beard made only one Conference Finals — and never got further.
Let’s be blunt: Harden’s regular-season greatness has been exceeded only by his postseason letdowns.
There’s also, back in 2019, an eerie echo of the Van Gundy quote on Doncic from last week. This one came from Houston’s then-General Manager, Daryl Morey, offered up on a podcast, when he also argued Harden was historically the No. 1 offensive player ever — this time in direct contrast to Michael Jordan — despite having not then (or since) won a title.
“It’s just factual,” Morey said in 2019, “that James Harden is a better scorer than Michael Jordan. You give James Harden the ball and before you’re giving up the ball how many points do you generate, which is how you should measure offense, James Harden is by far No. 1 in NBA history.”
Harden and Luka share more than hyperbolic supporters, high-powered offenses and (to date) limited postseason successes. They’re also hyper ball-dominant players, and there are corners of the NBA where you can find executives and scouts who worry that Docic’s greatness, which will ultimately be judged by playoff success and championships, could go the way that Haden’s has gone.
As in Luka Doncic becoming a new version of James Harden.
“I agree,” one rival NBA executive told CBS Sports. “When you get a guy like Luka, you can win a lot of regular-season games and some playoff games. But there’s a ceiling in terms of outcomes.”
The reasons for that, several executives said, are numerous. Here’s a compilation of their concerns about players, like and including Doncic, who dominate the ball at historical levels:
The defensive liability that often accompanies their offensive excellence, and certainly accompanies Luka’s. The wear and tear of high-usage rate players that can impact performance in the postseason, when exhaustion and better defenses and schemes team up. The way players like Doncic or Harden drive offensive outcomes all year as individuals — while dominating the ball — thus undercutting teammates’ abilities to be ready, best-situated or properly muscle-memoried to contribute in key playoff moments. The way playoff basketball is much more geared to stopping individual excellence than team excellence. “The problem with the playoffs for Luka or James is better teams and better coaches,” one scout said. “In the regular season, teams play most actions in flow — not set plays. It’s more random. There’s just too many games, one after the other. But in the playoffs there’s more time for a film-based approach, more specific actions, and more focus stopping guys like Luka, and more practice time to implement it. You can reduce his successful outcomes if not his stats.”
History backs this up.
This season, Luka Doncic’s usage rate was 35.98 percent, the 20th-highest mark in a season in NBA history.
No player in the league’s history with a higher single-season usage rate has ever made an NBA Finals, let alone won one. Of the 19 times players had the ball in their hands more often than Doncic did this season, only three have even made a Conference Finals — Harden in 2017-18, Kobe Bryant in 2005-06, and Doncic himself in 2021-22, his only time past the first round.
Michael Jordan has two of the highest-usage-rate single seasons in NBA history. He missed the playoffs in one of them and was eliminated in the first round in the other. In seasons with a top-20 all-time usage rate, Giannis, Iverson, and Dwyane Wade also lost in the first round of the playoffs.
Including this year, Doncic has four of the highest usage-rate seasons ever, all to no avail. Harden has three of them. He, too, has never won a championship, and never made a Finals since leaving Oklahoma City to become the focal point in Houston and, to lesser degrees, later in Brooklyn and Philly before heading to LA.
Three players have won an MVP while having a top-20 all-time usage rate season — Giannis, Harden and Embiid. Not one of them got out of the second round of the playoffs those seasons.
All of which is history’s way of telling us that, while greatness is a critical component of winning a championship, too-much ball dominance can undercut even the most astounding of historical seasons.
Luka Doncic is extraordinary. No doubt.
But so was Harden before him. And if Luka & Co. can’t get past Harden and the Clippers starting Saturday, one of the game’s brightest lights could end up being something that feels like a letdown: A what-could-have-been all-time great career.
There’s time for all this to change. A year ago, criticisms and doubts were bubbling up around Nikola Jokic. One magical run silenced them all.
Luka Doncic is amazing, and he may well do the same this season. But if he doesn’t — especially if it’s another early payoff exist — it might be time to start considering the idea of Dallas’ James Harden 2.0.
The Sacramento Kings came away with a thrilling overtime win against the Los Angeles Lakers Sunday night, but the victory will leave a sour taste as De’Aaron Fox, the team’s centerpiece, sustained a “moderate” sprain to his right ankle and is expected to miss some time per The Athletic’s Shams Charania.
Fox tweaked his ankle when he was attacking the basket in transition during the fourth quarter of the Kings’ 132-127 win. As he planted his foot to elevate for a layup, he stepped on Lakers guard Gabe Vincent’s foot, and fell to the ground. He began grabbing at his ankle and writhing in pain as play continued, but he managed to play the remaining seven minutes of the fourth quarter and overtime.
After the game, Kings head coach Mike Brown didn’t give an update on Fox’s injury because the team didn’t know the extent of the injury. However, the reigning Coach of the Year did praise his star guard for playing through the pain.
“He’s tough as nails, man,” Brown said of Fox, who led all scorers with 37 points. “To try to show the grit that he showed and get out there to help us win a ballgame, that just speaks volumes to who he is and how much he wants to lay his body on the line to help his team.”
Losing Fox for any amount of time isn’t ideal for the Kings, and while no one player can account for his production on offense, especially in clutch situations, Sacramento has the depth to try and fill some of that void. It’s just a matter of who will be able to step up in Fox’s absence.
Surface-level changes are coming to the NBA’s In-Season Tournament. The games will be played on new, fully painted (i.e. no visible woodgrain) courts, all 30 of which share a visual aesthetic, the league announced Monday.
These alternate courts are intentionally louder than what you’re used to. Many have bright, bold color schemes. All feature a 16-foot wide “runway” across the length of the court, with the NBA Cup — the trophy awarded to the winner of the tournament — displayed enormously at center court and less enormously as silhouettes in both lanes. They have been designed to give In-Season Tournament games, which begin this Friday, a different look than standard regular-season fare.
All 30 courts, organized here by tournament group, have a shared aesthetic. NBA (High-definition looks of all courts are available in this NBA Twitter thread.)
Most of the court designs are stylistically linked to the teams’ City Edition uniforms, which home teams will wear throughout the tournament. All have either a logo or a wordmark on top of the NBA Cup at center court, with the name of the team or the city or both (or, in the case of the Philadelphia 76ers, “City of Brotherly Love”) on the baselines.
NBA DEBUTS IN-SEASON TOURNAMENT COURTS FOR ALL 30 TEAMS pic.twitter.com/OHmOA8LYGL
— NBA (@NBA) October 30, 2023 Christopher Arena, the NBA’s head of on-court and brand partnerships, said that, for the most part, the league has aimed to treat the court “as a stage” and to “allow the focus of the game to be the game.” This meant that the playing surfaces themselves were not supposed to be distracting.
“For the bulk of our season, we are reinforcing that,” Arena said. “But to take 60 games out of that season and to put the focus on the stage and to really have something from a broadcast standpoint…that really forces you to stop and look and focus, we think that was the right thing to do for this tournament at this time in the history of the National Basketball Association.”
For five teams — the Boston Celtics, Chicago Bulls, Los Angeles Lakers, New Orleans Pelicans and Portland Trail Blazers — this is the first alternate court in franchise history.
The Celtics, whose primary court is the only one in the NBA made out of red oak, will host their In-Season Tournament games on maple hardwood, like everybody else.
The first annual In-Season Tournament will begin on Nov. 3 with the first of seven tournament nights, all on Tuesdays and Fridays. Group play will conclude on Nov. 28, after which eight teams — the six group winners, plus one wild card from each conference — will advance to the knockout rounds. The quarterfinals are scheduled for Dec. 4 and 5 (in NBA team markets), and the semifinals and the championship game will be played on Dec. 7 and 9 in Las Vegas.
Some more notes on the courts:
The In-Season Tournament will mark the first time NBA games have been played on completely painted courts. The court for the semifinals and the championship game in Las Vegas “will be similar,” Arena said. It will feature two dynamic colors, the runway and the NBA Cup. It will, however, be “more league-identified.” The “runway” is supposed to evoke a literal one, “up to Vegas and to winning the In-Season Tournament,” Arena said. It “isn’t normal,” Arena said, to “take on 30 courts and redesign them and paint them and get them to team facilities within the span of three or four months.” The NBA worked with three manufacturers (Connor, Horner and Robbins) and several finishing companies to locate, sand, paint and refinish the courts in time for the tournament. Initially, a more conservative design, wherein the “aprons” (out-of-bounds areas) were a certain color, was in play. After “we started to show some leaders,” there was a shift in a bolder direction, Arena explained. “And then you start to really think, ‘Let’s go mild to wild and see what we can do.'” In addition to the courts, there will be many smaller visual cues to distinguish In-Season Tournament games from regular-season games. “Every little detail has been thought of,” Arena said, from the score bugs on the broadcasts to the ball racks and the shooting shirts. In Vegas, the ball itself will have a commemorative logo on it.
The Orlando Magic will face off against the Los Angeles Lakers at 10:30 p.m. ET on Monday at Crypto.com Arena. Los Angeles is 1-2 overall and finished last season 43-39, while Orlando is 2-0 overall and finished last season 34-48. The Lakers have won their last six matchups with the Magic but are only 3-2-1 against the spread during that span.
The Magic are 2-0 against the spread this season while the Lakers are 0-3 against the number. However, Los Angeles is favored by 2 points in the latest Lakers vs. Magic odds, and the over/under is 218.5 points. Before entering any Lakers vs. Magic picks, you’ll want to see the NBA predictions from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past five seasons. The model enters Week 2 of the 2023-24 NBA season on a 77-41 roll on all top-rated NBA picks dating back to last season, returning nearly $3,000. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.
The model has set its sights on Lakers vs. Magic. You can head to SportsLine to see its NBA picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Magic vs. Lakers:
Lakers vs. Magic spread: Lakers -2 Lakers vs. Magic over/under: 218.5 points Lakers vs. Magic money line: Lakers: -130, Magic: +109 Lakers vs. Magic picks: See picks here What you need to know about the Magic Last Friday, Orlando didn’t have too much breathing room in its game against Portland, but it still walked away with a 102-97 victory. The squad ran away with 63 points in the first half and ground out a win in the second half by allowing only 42 points.
Franz Wagner led the Magic with 23 points in the victory, and Cole Anthony remained hot with 18 points off the bench after pouring in 20 in a win against the Rockets on opening night. Orlando has held opponents to just 40.1% shooting from the floor so far this season and will be looking to use an energetic young roster to play harassing defense again on Monday.
What you need to know about the Lakers Meanwhile, the Lakers fought the good fight in their overtime contest against the Kings on Sunday but took a 132-127 hit to the loss column. Despite the defeat, the Lakers got a solid performance out of Anthony Davis, who dropped a double-double on 30 points and 16 rebounds. Davis has also made an impact defensively this season, blocking two or more in the last three games he’s played.
LeBron James also exceeded his stated minutes cap yet again, playing 39 minutes (his cap is allegedly 28-30) and finishing with 27 points, 15 rebounds and eight assists. James is averaging 23.0 points, 10.3 rebounds and 7.3 assists over the first three games of his 21st NBA season. Jarred Vanderbilt (heel) remains out for Los Angeles.
How to make Lakers vs. Magic picks The model has simulated Magic vs. Lakers 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you that the model is leaning Over, and it’s also generated a point-spread pick where one side hits in almost 60% of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.
Flavor Flav may not be the first person fans would expect to perform the national anthem at a sporting event. However, he did exactly that prior to Sunday’s game between the Atlanta Hawks and Milwaukee Bucks.
Decked out with a No. 59 Bucks jersey and a red chain, the Public Enemy rapper sang a unique rendition of “The Star-Spangled Banner” at Fiserv Forum.
YEAH BOY.
S/O @FlavorFlav for the flavorful anthem! pic.twitter.com/O1UT9sYTZG
— Milwaukee Bucks (@Bucks) October 29, 2023 The rapper received a small round of applause from the crowd as he winded down the national anthem, while several Bucks players held back laughter. In typical Flavor Flav fashion, he put his own spin on the national anthem by repeating the final verse three times before wrapping up.
He did receive a standing ovation from the crowd.
Flavor Flav commented on his performance on X, stating that performing “The Star-Spangled Banner” was a “long time bucket list item” for him.
“I can’t live my life worried about what people might say about me,” the rapper added. “I won’t let that stop me from trying new things and doing things I wanna do. Some people might not like that. But a sure failure is you stop trying.”
The New Orleans Pelicans (2-0) will try to build on their impressive start to the season when they host the Golden State Warriors (2-1) on Monday night. New Orleans beat Memphis on the road in its opener before defeating New York on Saturday. Golden State lost to Phoenix in a season-opening thriller, but it responded with road wins over the Kings and Rockets. These teams split their four meetings last year, with the home team winning on every occasion.
Tip-off is set for 8 p.m. ET at the Smoothie King Center in New Orleans. The Pelicans are favored by 4 points in the latest Warriors vs. Pelicans odds, while the over/under is 226 points, per SportsLine consensus. Before entering any Pelicans vs. Warriors picks, you’ll want to see the NBA predictions from the model at SportsLine.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past five seasons. The model enters Week 2 of the 2023-24 NBA season on a 77-41 roll on all top-rated NBA picks dating back to last season, returning nearly $3,000. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.
The model has set its sights on Pelicans vs. Warriors. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Warriors vs. Pelicans:
Pelicans vs. Warriors spread: Pelicans -4 Pelicans vs. Warriors over/under: 226 points Pelicans vs. Warriors money line: Pelicans: -169, Warriors: +142 Pelicans vs. Warriors picks: See picks here Why the Pelicans can cover New Orleans is off to an outstanding start, winning both of its games behind big performances from Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram. Williamson is averaging 23.5 points per game, while Ingram is not far behind at 22.5, with the former All-Stars finally healthy at the same time after playing just 12 games together last season. The Pelicans hit 14 of 32 3-pointers in their win over Memphis to open the campaign.
Golden State is in a brutal scheduling spot on Monday night, as this will be its third road game in four days. The Warriors opened the season with a loss to Phoenix before winning a pair of road games by single digits. They have only covered the spread three times in their last nine October games, while New Orleans has covered at a 10-4-1 clip in its last 15 games dating back to last season.
Why the Warriors can cover Golden State won just 11 road games last season, but it has already picked up two quick road wins this year. Star guard Stephen Curry scored a game-high 24 points and hit four 3-pointers in under two minutes late in the fourth quarter of a 106-95 win against Houston on Sunday. Klay Thompson chipped in 19 points, while Gary Payton II scored 15 points off the bench.
Veteran forward Draymond Green saw his first action of the season, scoring four points, grabbing five rebounds and dishing out five assists in his return from an ankle injury. New Orleans has not demonstrated consistency in recent years and it lost its last two games against Golden State last season. The Warriors have covered the spread in four of the last five meetings between these teams, and they have won 13 of the last 19 games outright. See which team to pick here.
How to make Pelicans vs. Warriors picks The model has simulated Warriors vs. Pelicans 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you that the model is leaning Over, and it’s also generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in almost 60% of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.
The Indiana Pacers and the Chicago Bulls will face off in a Central Division clash on Monday. Indiana is 2-0 overall and finished last season 35-47, while Chicago is 1-2 overall and finished last season 40-42. The Pacers have won the last three head-to-head matchups, which followed a four-game winning streak by the Bulls in the series.
Tip-off is at 7 p.m. ET from Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. Indiana is favored by 3 points in the latest Pacers vs. Bulls odds, and the over/under is 229.5 points. Before entering any Bulls vs. Pacers picks, you’ll want to see the NBA predictions from the model at SportsLine.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past five seasons. The model enters Week 2 of the 2023-24 NBA season on a 77-41 roll on all top-rated NBA picks dating back to last season, returning nearly $3,000. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.
The model has set its sights on Pacers vs. Bulls. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Bulls vs. Pacers:
Pacers vs. Bulls spread: Pacers -3 Pacers vs. Bulls over/under: 229.5 points Pacers vs. Bulls money line: Pacers: -153, Bulls: +129 Pacers vs. Bulls picks: See picks here What you need to know about the Pacers Last Saturday, Indiana earned a 125-113 win over Cleveland, which made it back-to-back victories for the Pacers. Aaron Nesmith and Tyrese Haliburton were among the main playmakers for the Pacers as the former earned 26 points along with nine rebounds, while the latter shot 4-for-7 from beyond the arc and dropped a double-double on 21 points and 13 assists.
Through two games, the Pacers are leading the NBA with 134 points per game, as well as topping the league with an offensive rating of 128.6. That comes despite not a single player logging even 30 minuntes per game as Indiana has shown off its improved depth. Seven different players are averaging in double-figures, including newcomer Bruce Brown with 15 points per game.
What you need to know about the Bulls Meanwhile, the point spread may have favored the Bulls last Saturday, but the final result did not. The match between Chicago and Detroit wasn’t a total blowout, but with Chicago falling 118-102 on the road, it was darn close to turning into one. The Bulls found out winning isn’t easy when you don’t work as a unit and post 13 fewer assists than your opponent.
The loss came about despite an amazing performance from Zach LaVine, who went 7 for 13 from beyond the arc en route to a career-high of 51 points. Chicago appears to be top-heavy as LaVine is averaging 25 PPG, with DeMar DeRozan at 24.3 PPG, but the Bulls’ other three starters are combining to average just 25.7 PPG. See which team to pick here.
How to make Pacers vs. Bulls picks The model has simulated Pacers vs. Bulls 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you that the model is leaning Over, and it’s also generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in over 50% of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.
We’ve got another exciting Eastern Conference matchup on the NBA schedule as the Boston Celtics and the Washington Wizards are set to tip at 7 p.m. ET on Monday at Capital One Arena. Washington is 1-1 overall and the Wizards finished last season 35-47, while Boston is 2-0 overall and the Celtics finished last season 57-25. The Celtics have dominated the Wizards recently, winning four of the last five meetings with Washington.
The Celtics are favored by 10 points in the latest Wizards vs. Celtics odds, and the over/under for total points scored is 229. Before entering any Celtics vs. Wizards picks, you’ll want to see the NBA predictions from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past five seasons. The model enters Week 2 of the 2023-24 NBA season on a 77-41 roll on all top-rated NBA picks dating back to last season, returning nearly $3,000. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.
The model has set its sights on Boston-Washington. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several NBA betting lines for Celtics vs. Wizards:
Wizards vs. Celtics spread: Wizards +10 Wizards vs. Celtics over/under: 229 points Wizards vs. Celtics money line: Wizards: +368, Celtics: -498 Wizards vs. Celtics picks: See picks here What you need to know about the Celtics On Friday, Boston was able to grind out a victory over the Miami Heat, taking the game 119-111. The victory made it back-to-back wins for the Celtics. The Celtics can attribute much of their success to Derrick White, who recorded 28 points along with six rebounds.
Jayson Tatum finished with 22 points, eight rebounds and five assists against the Heat, while Jrue Holiday recorded a double-double with 17 points and 10 rebounds. The Celtics are scoring 113.5 points per game on average this season. Defensively, Boston is giving up 107.5 points per game.
What you need to know about the Wizards Washington earned a 113-106 victory over the Memphis Grizzlies on Saturday. The victory was just what the Wizards needed coming off of a 143-120 loss in their prior matchup.
Guard Jordan Poole led Washington with 27 points in Saturday’s win. Forward Kyle Kuzma also had a productive performance against the Grizzlies, finishing with 21 points and 13 rebounds. For the season, Kuzma is averaging 23.0 points and 7.5 rebounds per game.
How to make Wizards vs. Celtics picks The model has simulated Wizards vs. Celtics 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you the model is leaning Over, and it’s also generated a point-spread pick that has all the value. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.
